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crack matlab r2013b download Like generals, journalists often fight the last war, which is the best explanation of the mismatch between their coverage of the Democratic gubernatorial primary and the data on it, gaffes about greatness not withstanding.
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civilization v patch 22.214.171.124 crack Four years ago none of the leading pollsters even bothered to assess the race between insurgent Zephyr Teachout and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who was seeking election to a second term. When voters went to the polls Sept. 9, they shocked the experts and journalists by giving Teachout 35% of the vote, five percentage points more than the supposedly impossible threshold she had set for herself. "The strong performance by Ms. Teachout was an embarrassing rebuke to Mr. Cuomo," The New York Times wrote the next day.
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microsoft office 2010 product key serial keygen for permanent The lesson of 2014 was amplified in June by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's shocking defeat of Rep. Joseph Crowley, the No. 4–ranked House Democrat. The Times' news pages had mentioned her exactly three times before the election—twice in national roundups of candidates like her and once in a single paragraph of an Election Day preview.
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how to cook boneless pork shoulder roast in crock pot Suddenly journalists decided there was a new dynamic to focus on in the primary between Cuomo and actress-activist Cynthia Nixon. Progressives in the Democratic Party do seem fired up. Cuomo has taken some hits, especially with the recent federal criminal convictions of a top aide and his go-to economic development person. The primary is unusually on a Thursday, so turnout will be low and skew toward progressive voters. An upset is possible.
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imtoo iphone transfer crack code "The problem," noted veteran pollster Lee Miringoff of Marist, "is that there is nothing in the data to support such thinking." The two most recent polls, by top-rated survey organizations Siena and Quinnipiac, put Cuomo's lead at more than 30 points. Cuomo's unforced error about greatness may have long term ramifications but not in a Democratic primary where many voters agree with him.
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gw2 crack clan If Cuomo ignored Teachout four years ago, he certainly has learned his lesson. He's using the advantages of incumbency, traveling around the state announcing new projects and money for communities. With some $30 million to burn, he's spent $7 million of it to blanket the airwaves with campaign ads, most of which portray him as the state's defender against the evils of President Donald Trump. If angry Democrats want to send a message to Trump on Sept. 13, Miringoff said, they are likely to do so by voting for Cuomo, not against him.
microsoft office 2012 64 bit crack It is true a month can be a long time in politics, especially in the Trump era. The Aug. 29 debate between Cuomo and Nixon could always be a game-changer. But the battleground is not Queens, Cuomo is not Crowley, and history is not preordained to repeat itself.